暨南学报(哲学社会科学版)

作者：郑勇

单位：博士,四川农业大学经济学院讲师。

关键词：信用风险,融资约束,经济周期

基金：四川农业大学社会科学研究专项项目“利率、信贷扩张与房地产周期”。

本文旨在揭示房地产市场、信用市场和真实经济之间存在互动加速机制。在内生化信用风险的基础上,将信用风险纳入经济周期模型一般分析框架,通过建立动态随机一般均衡模型研究信用风险对宏观经济周期波动的作用机制。研究发现,与传统模型相比,信用风险的加入使周期波动的程度显著加强,信用风险对周期波动具有放大效应。相较于TFP冲击,宏观经济周期波动更多受到房价冲击影响。本文模型能更好拟合实际数据,反映真实经济更大波动性和持续性特征。"/>template{display:none;}.mag-rich-xref-fn { cursor: pointer;}//长视频$(document).ready(function(){if($("#showLongArticleVideo") && $("#showLongArticleVideo").length && $("#showLongArticleVideo").length>0){mag_ajax_update({ele_id:'showLongArticleVideo',url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + "/CN/article/showLongArticleVideo.do?id="+$("#articleId").val()});}});$(document).ready(function(){window.metaData = {"journal":{"issn":"1000-5072","qiKanMingCheng_CN":"暨南学报（哲学社会科学版）","id":2,"qiKanMingCheng_EN":"Jinan Journal"},"fundList_cn":["四川农业大学社会科学研究专项项目“利率、信贷扩张与房地产周期”。"],"article":{"keywordList_cn":["经济周期","融资约束","信用风险"],"juan":"40","zhaiyao_cn":"本文旨在揭示房地产市场、信用市场和真实经济之间存在互动加速机制。在内生化信用风险的基础上,将信用风险纳入经济周期模型一般分析框架,通过建立动态随机一般均衡模型研究信用风险对宏观经济周期波动的作用机制。研究发现,与传统模型相比,信用风险的加入使周期波动的程度显著加强,信用风险对周期波动具有放大效应。相较于TFP冲击,宏观经济周期波动更多受到房价冲击影响。本文模型能更好拟合实际数据,反映真实经济更大波动性和持续性特征。","endNoteUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=EndNote&id=6113","reference":"","bibtexUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=BibTeX&id=6113","abstractUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/Y2018/V40/I7/24","qi":"7","id":6113,"nian":2018,"bianHao":"2018-7-24","zuoZheEn_L":"ZHENG Yong","juanUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/Y2018","shouCiFaBuRiQi":"2018-06-29","qiShiYe":"24","qiUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/Y2018/V40/I7","lanMu_cn":"经济·管理","pdfSize":"1141","zuoZhe_CN":"郑勇","risUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=Ris&id=6113","title_cn":"信用风险、房价与宏观经济波动","jieShuYe":"37","keywordList_en":["Business cycle","Credit risks","Financing constraints"],"endNoteUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=EndNote&id=6113","zhaiyao_en":"The purpose of this paper is to reveal the interactive acceleration mechanism among the real estate market, the credit market and the real economy. 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来源：2018年第7期

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