暨南学报(哲学社会科学版)

作者：张龙,刘金全

单位：吉林大学商学院博士研究生;刘金全,吉林大学数量经济研究中心教授,教育部长江学者特聘教授。

关键词：经济政策不确定性,城镇消费,农村消费,异质性

基金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“经济新常态下经济增长的趋势性与收敛性研究”(批准号:71873042)。

本文首先对我国经济政策不确定性进行阶段性划分,并在错位阶段整合基础上运用SV-TVP-FAVAR模型分析经济政策不确定性对城镇和农村消费的动态影响。结果表明:(1) 我国经济政策不确定性呈现出明显的阶段性特征,符合经济政策和外部冲击既有事实;(2) 我国经济政策不确定性对城镇消费产生抑制作用,且平稳期抑制效应微弱;(3) 我国经济政策不确定性对农村消费产生弱刺激作用,且不同阶段冲击特征无明显差异。新常态下,政府应科学看待行为主体的“异质预期”,防范经济政策不确定性的消费效应负向偏移扩大化,适度刺激农村消费。"/>template{display:none;}.mag-rich-xref-fn { cursor: pointer;}//长视频$(document).ready(function(){if($("#showLongArticleVideo") && $("#showLongArticleVideo").length && $("#showLongArticleVideo").length>0){mag_ajax_update({ele_id:'showLongArticleVideo',url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + "/CN/article/showLongArticleVideo.do?id="+$("#articleId").val()});}});$(document).ready(function(){window.metaData = {"journal":{"issn":"1000-5072","qiKanMingCheng_CN":"暨南学报（哲学社会科学版）","id":2,"qiKanMingCheng_EN":"Jinan Journal"},"fundList_cn":["国家自然科学基金面上项目“经济新常态下经济增长的趋势性与收敛性研究”(批准号:71873042)。"],"article":{"keywordList_cn":["城镇消费","经济政策不确定性","农村消费","异质性"],"juan":"41","zhaiyao_cn":"本文首先对我国经济政策不确定性进行阶段性划分,并在错位阶段整合基础上运用SV-TVP-FAVAR模型分析经济政策不确定性对城镇和农村消费的动态影响。结果表明:(1) 我国经济政策不确定性呈现出明显的阶段性特征,符合经济政策和外部冲击既有事实;(2) 我国经济政策不确定性对城镇消费产生抑制作用,且平稳期抑制效应微弱;(3) 我国经济政策不确定性对农村消费产生弱刺激作用,且不同阶段冲击特征无明显差异。新常态下,政府应科学看待行为主体的“异质预期”,防范经济政策不确定性的消费效应负向偏移扩大化,适度刺激农村消费。","endNoteUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=EndNote&id=6275","reference":"","bibtexUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=BibTeX&id=6275","abstractUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/Y2019/V41/I7/46","qi":"7","id":6275,"nian":2019,"bianHao":"2019-7-46","zuoZheEn_L":"","juanUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/Y2019","shouCiFaBuRiQi":"2019-06-25","qiShiYe":"46","qiUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/Y2019/V41/I7","lanMu_cn":"宏观经济政策专题","pdfSize":"2435","zuoZhe_CN":"张龙,刘金全","risUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=Ris&id=6275","title_cn":"我国经济政策不确定性的阶段性特征及其动态消费效应","jieShuYe":"56","endNoteUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=EndNote&id=6275","zhaiyao_en":"","bibtexUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=BibTeX&id=6275","abstractUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/Y2019/V41/I7/46","zuoZheCn_L":"张龙,刘金全","juanUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/Y2019","lanMu_en":"","qiUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/Y2019/V41/I7","zuoZhe_EN":"","risUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=Ris&id=6275","title_en":"","hasPdf":"true"},"authorNotes_cn":["张龙,吉林大学商学院博士研究生;刘金全,吉林大学数量经济研究中心教授,教育部长江学者特聘教授。"]};if(window.metaData && (!window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_cn && !window.metaData.authorNotesCorresp_cn && window.metaData.authorNotes_cn)){window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_cn = window.metaData.authorNotes_cn;}if(window.metaData && (!window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_en && !window.metaData.authorNotesCorresp_en && window.metaData.authorNotes_en)){window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_en = window.metaData.authorNotes_en;}var _nlmdtdXml = $("#article_nlmdtdXml").val();var magDir = _nlmdtdXml.replace(/\/[^\/]+$/,'');window.metaData.magDir = magDir;new mag_vue({ el: '#metaVue', //dataUrl: mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/EN/article/getRichHtmlJson.do?articleId='+$("#articleId").val(), data:window.metaData, loading:true, doTextFun:function(text){ return doDataJsonText(text); }, doAfterFun:function(selector,jsonData){doMagVueAfter(selector,jsonData);}});var pars = {attachType:'PDF',id:$("#articleId").val(),json:true};jQuery.post($("#mag-common-contextPath").val()+"/CN/article/showArticleFile.do?" + new Date().getTime(), pars, function(data){var json=null;if(data.match(/^\[json\].*/g)){json=eval("("+data.replace(/^\[json\]/g,"")+")");}if(json && json.status == 1){//有权限}else{//无权限$("#no-access-div").show();}});mag_ajax({url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/article/getRichHtmlJson.do',data:{articleId:$("#articleId").val(),token:'3b70ca23004a4595bd6f84b84f2c1a34',referer:document.referrer},dataType:"json",async:"false",success:function(json){if(json.richHtmlJson && json.richHtmlJson.article){if(json.trans){var _nlmdtdXmlCN = $("#article_nlmdtdXmlCN").val();var magDirCN = _nlmdtdXmlCN.replace(/\/[^\/]+$/,'');json.richHtmlJson.magDir=magDirCN;}else{json.richHtmlJson.magDir=magDir;}new mag_vue({ el: '#bodyVue', data:json.richHtmlJson, doTextFun:function(text){ return doDataJsonText(text); }, doAfterFun:function(selector,jsonData){doMagVueAfter(selector,jsonData);}});}}});//altmetricif($.trim($("#article_doi").val())!=''){$.ajax({url:'https://api.altmetric.com/v1/doi/'+$.trim($("#article_doi").val())+'?callback=altmetric_callback',//url:'https://api.altmetric.com/v1/doi/10.1007/s13238-016-0264-7?callback=altmetric_callback',dataType:'jsonp'});}mag_rich_menu(jQuery);$(function(){ $('#autoMenu').autoMenu();})$("#autoMenu").niceScroll({cursorcolor: "#ccc", //滚动条的颜色cursoropacitymax: 0, //滚动条的透明度，从0-1 touchbehavior: false, //使光标拖动滚动像在台式电脑触摸设备 true滚动条拖动不可用 cursorwidth: "6px", //滚动条的宽度 单位默认px cursorborder: "0", // 游标边框css定义 cursorborderradius: "3px", //滚动条两头的圆角 autohidemode: true, //是否隐藏滚动条 true的时候默认不显示滚动条，当鼠标经过的时候显示滚动条 zindex: "auto", //给滚动条设置z-index值 railvalign:'defaul',railpadding: {top: 0,right: -6,left: 0,bottom: 0}, //滚动条的位置});window.autoMenuFlag=true;$("#relatedArticles").niceScroll({cursorcolor: "#ccc", //滚动条的颜色cursoropacitymax: 0, //滚动条的透明度，从0-1 touchbehavior: false, //使光标拖动滚动像在台式电脑触摸设备 true滚动条拖动不可用 cursorwidth: "6px", //滚动条的宽度 单位默认px cursorborder: "0", // 游标边框css定义 cursorborderradius: "3px", //滚动条两头的圆角 autohidemode: true, //是否隐藏滚动条 true的时候默认不显示滚动条，当鼠标经过的时候显示滚动条 zindex: "auto", //给滚动条设置z-index值 railvalign:'defaul',railpadding: {top: 0,right: -6,left: 0,bottom: 0}, //滚动条的位置});//公式序号 居右jQuery(".mag-xml-disp-formula").each(function() {var _this = jQuery(this);var _label= _this.children("label");if(typeof(_label.html())!="undefined"){_this.children("label").remove();_this.wrap("");_this.parent().parent().append(""+_label.html()+"");}});$('body').click(function(){$('.daochu_div').hide();$('.qipao').hide();})$('.qipao').click(function(event){event.stopPropagation();})/*参考文献显示隐藏*/$('.biaotijiantoush1').click(function(event){if($(this).attr('class')=='glyphicon glyphicon-triangle-top biaotijiantoush biaotijiantoush1'){$(this).parents('.mag_main_zhengwen_left_div_ckwx_table_benwenyiny').next('.mag_main_zhengwen_left_div_ckwx_table_ckwx_xiangqing').stop().slideUp();$(this).attr('class','glyphicon glyphicon-triangle-bottom biaotijiantoush biaotijiantoush1');}else if($(this).attr('class')=='glyphicon glyphicon-triangle-bottom biaotijiantoush biaotijiantoush1'){$(this).parents('.mag_main_zhengwen_left_div_ckwx_table_benwenyiny').next('.mag_main_zhengwen_left_div_ckwx_table_ckwx_xiangqing').stop().slideDown();$(this).attr('class','glyphicon glyphicon-triangle-top biaotijiantoush biaotijiantoush1');}event.stopPropagation();});//加载补充材料mag_ajax_update({ele_id:'showArticle_suppls',url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/article/showArticleSuppls.do',data:{articleId:$("#articleId").val()}});//加载专题mag_ajax_update({ele_id:'showArticle_subjects',url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/subject/showSubjectListByArticle.do',data:{articleId:$("#articleId").val(),forwardJsp:'showArticle'}});//渲染公式mag_mathJax();});function altmetric_callback(json){if(json && json.score){if(json.score - parseInt(json.score) > 0){$("#altmetric-score").html(parseInt(json.score)+1);}else{$("#altmetric-score").html(parseInt(json.score));}$(".main_content_center_right_duoweidu_div").css("width","25%");$("#altmetric-a").show();$("#altmetric-a").attr("href",json.details_url);}}function richClickAuthor(name){var searchSQL = "((("+mag_advSearchValReplace(name)+"[Author]) AND 2J[Journal]) AND year[Order])";mag_request({url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/searchresult',data:{searchSQL:searchSQL}});}function richClickKeyword(keyword){var searchSQL = "((("+mag_advSearchValReplace(keyword)+"[Keyword]) AND 2J[Journal]) AND year[Order])";mag_request({url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/searchresult',data:{searchSQL:searchSQL}});}function mag_share(){$("#bShare_more_a").click();}function loadRelatedArticles(){if($("#showRelatedArticles") && $("#showRelatedArticles").length>0){//加载过了}else{mag_loading();mag_ajax_update({ele_id:'relatedArticles-content',url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/article/relatedArticle.do',data:{id:$("#articleId").val(), forwardJsp:'showArticle'},complete:function(){mag_layer_close();}});}}function showMetrics(){mag_window_location(mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/metrics/'+$("#articleId").val());}function piaofuFn(a,fnId){var content=''+$("#mag-rich-fn-"+fnId).html()+'';piaofu(a,content);}function huoqukuanduimg(){//}function doDataJsonText(text){var str = text;//var _nlmdtdXml = $("#article_nlmdtdXml").val();//var magDir = _nlmdtdXml.replace(/\/[^\/]+$/,'');str = str.replace(/";ss += "";var shuomingTitle = "";var shuomingContent = '';if(fig.titleCn && fig.titleCn!=''){shuomingTitle = fig.titleCn;if(fig.titleContentCn && fig.titleContentCn!=''){shuomingContent += fig.titleContentCn;}}if(shuomingTitle==''){if(fig.titleEn && fig.titleEn!=''){shuomingTitle = fig.titleEn;}if(fig.titleContentEn && fig.titleContentEn!=''){shuomingContent += fig.titleContentEn;}}else{if(fig.titleEn && fig.titleEn!=''){shuomingContent += ""+fig.titleEn+"

来源：2019年第7期

《暨南学报(哲学社会科学版)》期刊编辑部

查看暨南学报(哲学社会科学版)杂志2019年第7期