暨南学报(哲学社会科学版)

作者：邓洁, 叶德珠, 潘爽

单位：广东外语外贸大学金融学院、广州华南财富管理中心研究基地、金融开放与资产管理研究中心;叶德珠、潘爽,暨南大学经济学院。

关键词：现金流不确定性,投资性房地产,非投资性房地产, 现金流正向流动,融资约束

基金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“金融与实体经济的结构匹配及其增长效应研究”(19AJY026);广东省自然科学基金面上项目“小额信贷中软信息的作用机制剖析:基于P2P网贷中借款描述的理论与实证研究”(2019A1515012064);广东省哲学社学科学“十三五”规划学科共建项目“后疫情时代养老保险缴费政策对企业投融资行为的影响研究”(GD20XGL12)。

企业的任何投资决策高度依赖于企业的内部现金流,对企业现金流不确定性的变化非常敏感。本文利用2005—2016年沪深A股上市公司数据,检验了实体企业持有房地产的内在决定因素——现金流不确定性的作用机理。结果发现:(1)现金流不确定性对企业房地产持有的预防效应占主导,即现金流不确定性会加剧企业融资约束程度,进而抑制房地产投资。(2)在不同的现金流不确定性程度下,现金流不确定性双重效应的主导地位会发生变化。即当企业面对高现金流不确定性时,现金流不确定性的预防效应占主导。反之,资助效应占主导。(3)前一年高现金持有及现金流正向流动会缓解现金流不确定性对企业房地产持有的预防效应。(4)一线城市会加强现金流不确定性的预防效应,而房地产超额回报率和担保物权制度改革会削弱这种效应。因此,建议企业尤其是先进制造业企业,不应高杠杆经营房地产业务,应降低非主营业务的债务负担与经营风险,将有限的金融资源集中于技术创新。此外,企业应客观地应对现金流不确定性的冲击,管理好现金流不确定性,密切关注不同城市的金融财政政策和房地产调控政策,合理规避“风险”。"/>template{display:none;}.mag-rich-xref-fn { cursor: pointer;}//长视频$(document).ready(function(){if($("#showLongArticleVideo") && $("#showLongArticleVideo").length && $("#showLongArticleVideo").length>0){mag_ajax_update({ele_id:'showLongArticleVideo',url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + "/CN/article/showLongArticleVideo.do?id="+$("#articleId").val()});}});$(document).ready(function(){window.metaData = {"journal":{"issn":"1000-5072","qiKanMingCheng_CN":"暨南学报（哲学社会科学版）","id":2,"qiKanMingCheng_EN":"Jinan Journal"},"fundList_cn":["国家社会科学基金重点项目“金融与实体经济的结构匹配及其增长效应研究”(19AJY026);广东省自然科学基金面上项目“小额信贷中软信息的作用机制剖析:基于P2P网贷中借款描述的理论与实证研究”(2019A1515012064);广东省哲学社学科学“十三五”规划学科共建项目“后疫情时代养老保险缴费政策对企业投融资行为的影响研究”(GD20XGL12)。"],"article":{"keywordList_cn":[" 现金流正向流动","非投资性房地产","融资约束","投资性房地产","现金流不确定性"],"juan":"44","zhaiyao_cn":"企业的任何投资决策高度依赖于企业的内部现金流,对企业现金流不确定性的变化非常敏感。本文利用2005—2016年沪深A股上市公司数据,检验了实体企业持有房地产的内在决定因素——现金流不确定性的作用机理。结果发现:(1)现金流不确定性对企业房地产持有的预防效应占主导,即现金流不确定性会加剧企业融资约束程度,进而抑制房地产投资。(2)在不同的现金流不确定性程度下,现金流不确定性双重效应的主导地位会发生变化。即当企业面对高现金流不确定性时,现金流不确定性的预防效应占主导。反之,资助效应占主导。(3)前一年高现金持有及现金流正向流动会缓解现金流不确定性对企业房地产持有的预防效应。(4)一线城市会加强现金流不确定性的预防效应,而房地产超额回报率和担保物权制度改革会削弱这种效应。因此,建议企业尤其是先进制造业企业,不应高杠杆经营房地产业务,应降低非主营业务的债务负担与经营风险,将有限的金融资源集中于技术创新。此外,企业应客观地应对现金流不确定性的冲击,管理好现金流不确定性,密切关注不同城市的金融财政政策和房地产调控政策,合理规避“风险”。","endNoteUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=EndNote&id=6589","bibtexUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=BibTeX&id=6589","abstractUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/10.11778/j.jnxb.20211960","qi":"4","id":6589,"nian":2022,"bianHao":"2022-4-74","zuoZheEn_L":"DENG Jie, YE Dezhu, PAN Shuang","juanUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/Y2022","shouCiFaBuRiQi":"2022-04-28","qiShiYe":"74","qiUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/Y2022/V44/I4","lanMu_cn":"经济·管理","pdfSize":"1510","zuoZhe_CN":"邓洁, 叶德珠, 潘爽","risUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=Ris&id=6589","title_cn":"现金流不确定性对企业房地产持有的影响——资助效应还是预防效应？","doi":"10.11778/j.jnxb.20211960","jieShuYe":"101","keywordList_en":["cash flow uncertainty","financial constraints","investment property","non-investment property","positive cash flow"],"endNoteUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=EndNote&id=6589","zhaiyao_en":"Any corporate investment decision is highly dependent on the corporate internal cash flow and is quite sensitive to the variance of cash flow uncertainty. The paper uses the data from Chinese listed companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets between 2005 and 2016 to examine the specific effect of the internal motivation-cash flow uncertainty on corporate real estate holdings. Our empirical results find that: First, generally, the precautionary effect of cash flow uncertainty on corporate real estate holdings plays a dominant role. That is, cash flow uncertainty can aggravate the degree of financing constraints, inhibiting corporate real estate investment. Second, the dominant position of the dual effect of cash flow uncertainty will change under different degrees of cash flow uncertainty. When faced with high cash flow uncertainty, the preventive effect of cash flow uncertainty on real estate investment will dominate, whereas when faced with low cash flow uncertainty, the precautionary effect of cash flow uncertainty may dominate. Third, high cash holdings and positive flow of cash flow of the previous year mitigate the precautionary effect of cash flow uncertainty. Fourth, the precautionary effect of cash flow uncertainty in first-tier cities is more obvious, whereas excess real estate returns and the reform of real right guarantee system will reduce the negative impact of cash flow uncertainty. This paper suggests that enterprises, especially advanced manufacturing enterprises, should not engage in real estate business with high leverage. Rather, they should reduce the debt burden and operational risk of non-main business, and concentrate their limited financial resources on corporate innovation. In addition, enterprises should objectively deal with the impact of cash flow uncertainty, manage cash flow uncertainty well, pay close attention to the financial and fiscal policies and real estate regulation policies among different cities, and thereby reasonably avoid “risks”.","bibtexUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=BibTeX&id=6589","abstractUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/10.11778/j.jnxb.20211960","zuoZheCn_L":"邓洁, 叶德珠, 潘爽","juanUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/Y2022","lanMu_en":"","qiUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/Y2022/V44/I4","zuoZhe_EN":"DENG Jie, YE Dezhu, PAN Shuang","risUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=Ris&id=6589","title_en":"The Effect of Cash Flow Uncertainty on Corporate Real Estate Holding—Supporting Effect or Precautionary Effect?","hasPdf":"true"},"authorNotes_cn":["邓洁,广东外语外贸大学金融学院、广州华南财富管理中心研究基地、金融开放与资产管理研究中心;叶德珠、潘爽,暨南大学经济学院。"]};if(window.metaData && (!window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_cn && !window.metaData.authorNotesCorresp_cn && window.metaData.authorNotes_cn)){window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_cn = window.metaData.authorNotes_cn;}if(window.metaData && (!window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_en && !window.metaData.authorNotesCorresp_en && window.metaData.authorNotes_en)){window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_en = window.metaData.authorNotes_en;}var _nlmdtdXml = $("#article_nlmdtdXml").val();var magDir = _nlmdtdXml.replace(/\/[^\/]+$/,'');window.metaData.magDir = magDir;new mag_vue({ el: '#metaVue', //dataUrl: mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/EN/article/getRichHtmlJson.do?articleId='+$("#articleId").val(), data:window.metaData, loading:true, doTextFun:function(text){ return doDataJsonText(text); }, doAfterFun:function(selector,jsonData){doMagVueAfter(selector,jsonData);}});var pars = {attachType:'PDF',id:$("#articleId").val(),json:true};jQuery.post($("#mag-common-contextPath").val()+"/CN/article/showArticleFile.do?" + new Date().getTime(), pars, function(data){var json=null;if(data.match(/^\[json\].*/g)){json=eval("("+data.replace(/^\[json\]/g,"")+")");}if(json && json.status == 1){//有权限}else{//无权限$("#no-access-div").show();}});mag_ajax({url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/article/getRichHtmlJson.do',data:{articleId:$("#articleId").val(),token:'3b5683f943a8418d987ca68870b03d8b',referer:document.referrer},dataType:"json",async:"false",success:function(json){if(json.richHtmlJson && json.richHtmlJson.article){if(json.trans){var _nlmdtdXmlCN = $("#article_nlmdtdXmlCN").val();var magDirCN = _nlmdtdXmlCN.replace(/\/[^\/]+$/,'');json.richHtmlJson.magDir=magDirCN;}else{json.richHtmlJson.magDir=magDir;}new mag_vue({ el: '#bodyVue', data:json.richHtmlJson, doTextFun:function(text){ return doDataJsonText(text); }, doAfterFun:function(selector,jsonData){doMagVueAfter(selector,jsonData);}});}}});//altmetricif($.trim($("#article_doi").val())!=''){$.ajax({url:'https://api.altmetric.com/v1/doi/'+$.trim($("#article_doi").val())+'?callback=altmetric_callback',//url:'https://api.altmetric.com/v1/doi/10.1007/s13238-016-0264-7?callback=altmetric_callback',dataType:'jsonp'});}mag_rich_menu(jQuery);$(function(){ $('#autoMenu').autoMenu();})$("#autoMenu").niceScroll({cursorcolor: "#ccc", //滚动条的颜色cursoropacitymax: 0, //滚动条的透明度，从0-1 touchbehavior: false, //使光标拖动滚动像在台式电脑触摸设备 true滚动条拖动不可用 cursorwidth: "6px", //滚动条的宽度 单位默认px cursorborder: "0", // 游标边框css定义 cursorborderradius: "3px", //滚动条两头的圆角 autohidemode: true, //是否隐藏滚动条 true的时候默认不显示滚动条，当鼠标经过的时候显示滚动条 zindex: "auto", //给滚动条设置z-index值 railvalign:'defaul',railpadding: {top: 0,right: -6,left: 0,bottom: 0}, //滚动条的位置});window.autoMenuFlag=true;$("#relatedArticles").niceScroll({cursorcolor: "#ccc", //滚动条的颜色cursoropacitymax: 0, //滚动条的透明度，从0-1 touchbehavior: false, //使光标拖动滚动像在台式电脑触摸设备 true滚动条拖动不可用 cursorwidth: "6px", //滚动条的宽度 单位默认px cursorborder: "0", // 游标边框css定义 cursorborderradius: "3px", //滚动条两头的圆角 autohidemode: true, //是否隐藏滚动条 true的时候默认不显示滚动条，当鼠标经过的时候显示滚动条 zindex: "auto", //给滚动条设置z-index值 railvalign:'defaul',railpadding: {top: 0,right: -6,left: 0,bottom: 0}, //滚动条的位置});//公式序号 居右jQuery(".mag-xml-disp-formula").each(function() {var _this = jQuery(this);var _label= _this.children("label");if(typeof(_label.html())!="undefined"){_this.children("label").remove();_this.wrap("");_this.parent().parent().append(""+_label.html()+"");}});$('body').click(function(){$('.daochu_div').hide();$('.qipao').hide();})$('.qipao').click(function(event){event.stopPropagation();})/*参考文献显示隐藏*/$('.biaotijiantoush1').click(function(event){if($(this).attr('class')=='glyphicon glyphicon-triangle-top biaotijiantoush biaotijiantoush1'){$(this).parents('.mag_main_zhengwen_left_div_ckwx_table_benwenyiny').next('.mag_main_zhengwen_left_div_ckwx_table_ckwx_xiangqing').stop().slideUp();$(this).attr('class','glyphicon glyphicon-triangle-bottom biaotijiantoush biaotijiantoush1');}else if($(this).attr('class')=='glyphicon glyphicon-triangle-bottom biaotijiantoush biaotijiantoush1'){$(this).parents('.mag_main_zhengwen_left_div_ckwx_table_benwenyiny').next('.mag_main_zhengwen_left_div_ckwx_table_ckwx_xiangqing').stop().slideDown();$(this).attr('class','glyphicon glyphicon-triangle-top biaotijiantoush biaotijiantoush1');}event.stopPropagation();});//加载补充材料mag_ajax_update({ele_id:'showArticle_suppls',url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/article/showArticleSuppls.do',data:{articleId:$("#articleId").val()}});//加载专题mag_ajax_update({ele_id:'showArticle_subjects',url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/subject/showSubjectListByArticle.do',data:{articleId:$("#articleId").val(),forwardJsp:'showArticle'}});//渲染公式mag_mathJax();});function altmetric_callback(json){if(json && json.score){if(json.score - parseInt(json.score) > 0){$("#altmetric-score").html(parseInt(json.score)+1);}else{$("#altmetric-score").html(parseInt(json.score));}$(".main_content_center_right_duoweidu_div").css("width","25%");$("#altmetric-a").show();$("#altmetric-a").attr("href",json.details_url);}}function richClickAuthor(name){var searchSQL = "((("+mag_advSearchValReplace(name)+"[Author]) AND 2J[Journal]) AND year[Order])";mag_request({url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/searchresult',data:{searchSQL:searchSQL}});}function richClickKeyword(keyword){var searchSQL = "((("+mag_advSearchValReplace(keyword)+"[Keyword]) AND 2J[Journal]) AND year[Order])";mag_request({url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/searchresult',data:{searchSQL:searchSQL}});}function mag_share(){$("#bShare_more_a").click();}function loadRelatedArticles(){if($("#showRelatedArticles") && $("#showRelatedArticles").length>0){//加载过了}else{mag_loading();mag_ajax_update({ele_id:'relatedArticles-content',url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/article/relatedArticle.do',data:{id:$("#articleId").val(), forwardJsp:'showArticle'},complete:function(){mag_layer_close();}});}}function showMetrics(){mag_window_location(mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/metrics/'+$("#articleId").val());}function piaofuFn(a,fnId){var content=''+$("#mag-rich-fn-"+fnId).html()+'';piaofu(a,content);}function huoqukuanduimg(){//}function doDataJsonText(text){var str = text;//var _nlmdtdXml = $("#article_nlmdtdXml").val();//var magDir = _nlmdtdXml.replace(/\/[^\/]+$/,'');str = str.replace(/";ss += "";var shuomingTitle = "";var shuomingContent = '';if(fig.titleCn && fig.titleCn!=''){shuomingTitle = fig.titleCn;if(fig.titleContentCn && fig.titleContentCn!=''){shuomingContent += fig.titleContentCn;}}if(shuomingTitle==''){if(fig.titleEn && fig.titleEn!=''){shuomingTitle = fig.titleEn;}if(fig.titleContentEn && fig.titleContentEn!=''){shuomingContent += fig.titleContentEn;}}else{if(fig.titleEn && fig.titleEn!=''){shuomingContent += ""+fig.titleEn+"

来源：2022年第4期

《暨南学报(哲学社会科学版)》期刊编辑部

查看暨南学报(哲学社会科学版)杂志2022年第4期