暨南学报(哲学社会科学版)

作者：唐攀

单位：暨南大学公共管理学院/应急管理学院。

关键词：新冠肺炎,省域,疫情防控体系,疫情防控能力,数据包络分析

基金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“国家面向跨组织合作的城市应急管理网络设计、协作管理与效果评价研究”(71774068);中央科研培育基金“粤港澳大湾区建设中的城市灾害治理模式研究”(21612301)。

突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情是对全国各级地方政府的一场大考,科学评价疫情防控能力是深入总结抗击疫情伟大斗争的根本问题,在实践中存在直接利用区域疫情感染率进行评价的认识误区。现有文献对疫情防控能力的界定有待进一步明确,往往按照还原论,利用评价指标的累加进行评价,存在思维范式、指标选取、评估模型等方面的短板。本文遵循复杂系统思维,从疫情防控体系对省域疫情传播过程的影响出发,将省域疫情防控能力界定为防控体系对疫情传播过程的遏制程度,引入数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA)模型对省域疫情防控能力进行评估,通过构建省域疫情传播过程的投入产出模型及其指标体系,对中国大陆29个省域的疫情防控能力进行了科学评价。研究结果明确了疫情防控能力的基本特征,评估了各省域应对国内第一波疫情中表现的疫情防控能力,发现省域疫情防控能力与疫情感染率存在较大差异,并提出了提升疫情防控能力的管理建议。"/>template{display:none;}.mag-rich-xref-fn { cursor: pointer;}//长视频$(document).ready(function(){if($("#showLongArticleVideo") && $("#showLongArticleVideo").length && $("#showLongArticleVideo").length>0){mag_ajax_update({ele_id:'showLongArticleVideo',url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + "/CN/article/showLongArticleVideo.do?id="+$("#articleId").val()});}});$(document).ready(function(){window.metaData = {"journal":{"issn":"1000-5072","qiKanMingCheng_CN":"暨南学报（哲学社会科学版）","id":2,"qiKanMingCheng_EN":"Jinan Journal"},"fundList_cn":["国家自然科学基金面上项目“国家面向跨组织合作的城市应急管理网络设计、协作管理与效果评价研究”(71774068);中央科研培育基金“粤港澳大湾区建设中的城市灾害治理模式研究”(21612301)。"],"article":{"keywordList_cn":["省域","数据包络分析","新冠肺炎","疫情防控能力","疫情防控体系"],"juan":"45","zhaiyao_cn":"突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情是对全国各级地方政府的一场大考,科学评价疫情防控能力是深入总结抗击疫情伟大斗争的根本问题,在实践中存在直接利用区域疫情感染率进行评价的认识误区。现有文献对疫情防控能力的界定有待进一步明确,往往按照还原论,利用评价指标的累加进行评价,存在思维范式、指标选取、评估模型等方面的短板。本文遵循复杂系统思维,从疫情防控体系对省域疫情传播过程的影响出发,将省域疫情防控能力界定为防控体系对疫情传播过程的遏制程度,引入数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA)模型对省域疫情防控能力进行评估,通过构建省域疫情传播过程的投入产出模型及其指标体系,对中国大陆29个省域的疫情防控能力进行了科学评价。研究结果明确了疫情防控能力的基本特征,评估了各省域应对国内第一波疫情中表现的疫情防控能力,发现省域疫情防控能力与疫情感染率存在较大差异,并提出了提升疫情防控能力的管理建议。","endNoteUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=EndNote&id=6010","bibtexUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=BibTeX&id=6010","abstractUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/10.11778/j.jnxb.20220972","qi":"1","id":6010,"nian":2023,"bianHao":"2023-1-108","zuoZheEn_L":"TANG Pan","juanUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/Y2023","shouCiFaBuRiQi":"2023-03-17","qiShiYe":"108","qiUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/Y2023/V45/I1","lanMu_cn":"公共管理","pdfSize":"3080","zuoZhe_CN":"唐攀","risUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=Ris&id=6010","title_cn":"基于DEA模型的省域新冠肺炎疫情防控能力系统性评价研究","doi":"10.11778/j.jnxb.20220972","jieShuYe":"121","keywordList_en":["COVID-19","data envelopment analysis","epidemic prevention and control capability","epidemic prevention and control system","provincial area"],"endNoteUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=EndNote&id=6010","zhaiyao_en":"The arising COVID-19 is a critical examination for local governments in our country. Evaluating the prevention and controlling capability of epidemics is a basic problem in summarizing the great fighting against the COVID-19 epidemic. There is a misunderstanding that the epidemic infection rate is directly used to measure the epidemic prevention and controlling capability in practice. It should be further clarified and is always evaluated to be the accumulated sum of evaluation indicators in the existing literatures. There is shortcoming of thinking paradigm, evaluation indicators, evaluation model. From the complex system perspective, this research defines the evaluating prevention and controlling capability to be the degree of containing the epidemic propagation process according to the interactive relationships among provincial epidemic spreading process, epidemic prevention and controlling system and population system from the perspectives of complex system. Moreover, this research employs the Data Envelopment Analysis model to evaluate provincial prevention and controlling capability, and constructs the input and output system of epidemic spreading process and its index. The epidemic prevention and control capabilities of twenty-nine provincial areas are evaluated scientifically. The basic characteristics of epidemic prevention and controlling capability are analyzed, as well as the capabilities of provincial areas in addressing the first wave of domestic epidemic are assessed. The research proves that there exists significant difference between the epidemic prevention and controlling capability and epidemic infection rate. A number of measures of improving the epidemic prevention and controlling capacity are proposed. This research is of significance to strengthen the epidemic prevention and controlling capacity, and to boost the modernization process of the emergency management system and capability in our country.","bibtexUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=BibTeX&id=6010","abstractUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/10.11778/j.jnxb.20220972","zuoZheCn_L":"唐攀","juanUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/Y2023","lanMu_en":"","qiUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/Y2023/V45/I1","zuoZhe_EN":"TANG Pan","risUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=Ris&id=6010","title_en":"Research on Holistic Evaluation for Provincial Epidemic Prevention and Controlling Capability during COVID-19 Epidemic based on DEA Model","hasPdf":"true"},"authorNotes_cn":["唐攀,暨南大学公共管理学院/应急管理学院。"]};if(window.metaData && (!window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_cn && !window.metaData.authorNotesCorresp_cn && window.metaData.authorNotes_cn)){window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_cn = window.metaData.authorNotes_cn;}if(window.metaData && (!window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_en && !window.metaData.authorNotesCorresp_en && window.metaData.authorNotes_en)){window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_en = window.metaData.authorNotes_en;}var _nlmdtdXml = $("#article_nlmdtdXml").val();var magDir = _nlmdtdXml.replace(/\/[^\/]+$/,'');window.metaData.magDir = magDir;new mag_vue({ el: '#metaVue', //dataUrl: mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/EN/article/getRichHtmlJson.do?articleId='+$("#articleId").val(), data:window.metaData, loading:true, doTextFun:function(text){ return doDataJsonText(text); 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来源：2023年第1期

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