暨南学报(哲学社会科学版)

作者：宋佳莹, 高传胜

单位：南京大学政府管理学院;高传胜,南京大学政府管理学院、长江产业经济研究院。

关键词：人口老龄化,养老保险支出,经济高质量发展,门槛效应

基金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“民生服务领域实施供给侧结构性改革研究”(22AZD037);江苏省社会科学基金重大项目“江苏实施积极应对人口老龄化战略与基于老龄服务业高质量发展的对策研究”(21ZD010)。

老龄化进程的加速影响了养老金的可持续性,对经济高质量发展形成了挑战。基于中国省级面板数据,分析人口老龄化、养老保险支出对经济高质量发展的影响与机制。研究发现:人口老龄化抑制了经济高质量发展,养老保险支出则促进了经济高质量发展;机制分析表明,人口老龄化在养老保险支出正向影响经济高质量发展过程中产生了负向调节效应,且当人口老龄化跨越门槛值时,养老保险支出对经济高质量发展的促进效应减弱。异质性分析中,人口老龄化的负效应、养老保险支出的正效应均呈现东—中—西部地区逐渐弱化的趋势;老龄化的负向调节作用在西部地区的促进效果反而不显著。从长远考虑,应尽快改善人口结构,提高人口质量;进一步完善养老保险支出体系,促进基金收支平衡,实现地区间养老保险支出与经济包容性协调发展。"/>template{display:none;}.mag-rich-xref-fn { cursor: pointer;}//长视频$(document).ready(function(){if($("#showLongArticleVideo") && $("#showLongArticleVideo").length && $("#showLongArticleVideo").length>0){mag_ajax_update({ele_id:'showLongArticleVideo',url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + "/CN/article/showLongArticleVideo.do?id="+$("#articleId").val()});}});$(document).ready(function(){window.metaData = {"journal":{"issn":"1000-5072","qiKanMingCheng_CN":"暨南学报（哲学社会科学版）","id":2,"qiKanMingCheng_EN":"Jinan Journal"},"fundList_cn":["国家社会科学基金重点项目“民生服务领域实施供给侧结构性改革研究”(22AZD037);江苏省社会科学基金重大项目“江苏实施积极应对人口老龄化战略与基于老龄服务业高质量发展的对策研究”(21ZD010)。"],"article":{"keywordList_cn":["经济高质量发展","门槛效应","人口老龄化","养老保险支出"],"juan":"45","zhaiyao_cn":"老龄化进程的加速影响了养老金的可持续性,对经济高质量发展形成了挑战。基于中国省级面板数据,分析人口老龄化、养老保险支出对经济高质量发展的影响与机制。研究发现:人口老龄化抑制了经济高质量发展,养老保险支出则促进了经济高质量发展;机制分析表明,人口老龄化在养老保险支出正向影响经济高质量发展过程中产生了负向调节效应,且当人口老龄化跨越门槛值时,养老保险支出对经济高质量发展的促进效应减弱。异质性分析中,人口老龄化的负效应、养老保险支出的正效应均呈现东—中—西部地区逐渐弱化的趋势;老龄化的负向调节作用在西部地区的促进效果反而不显著。从长远考虑,应尽快改善人口结构,提高人口质量;进一步完善养老保险支出体系,促进基金收支平衡,实现地区间养老保险支出与经济包容性协调发展。","endNoteUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=EndNote&id=6551","bibtexUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=BibTeX&id=6551","abstractUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/10.11778/j.jnxb.20222014","qi":"2","id":6551,"nian":2023,"bianHao":"2023-2-98","zuoZheEn_L":"SONG Jiaying, GAO Chuansheng","juanUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/Y2023","shouCiFaBuRiQi":"2023-03-28","qiShiYe":"98","qiUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/Y2023/V45/I2","lanMu_cn":"社会保障研究","pdfSize":"2342","zuoZhe_CN":"宋佳莹, 高传胜","risUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=Ris&id=6551","title_cn":"人口老龄化、养老保险支出与经济高质量发展","doi":"10.11778/j.jnxb.20222014","jieShuYe":"114","keywordList_en":["high-quality economic development","pension security expenditure","population aging","threshold effect"],"endNoteUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=EndNote&id=6551","zhaiyao_en":"The accelerated aging process affects the sustainability of pensions and poses a challenge to high-quality economic development. Based on the provincial panel data in China, we analyze the effects and mechanisms of population aging and pension security expenditure on high-quality economic development. The study finds that population aging inhibits high-quality economic development, while pension insurance expenditure exhibits a contribution to high-quality economic development. The mechanism analysis shows that population aging plays a negative moderating effect in the process of pension insurance expenditure positively affecting economic high-quality development. And when population aging crosses the threshold value, the promoting effect of pension insurance expenditure on high-quality economic development is weakened. In the heterogeneity analysis, the negative effect of population aging and the positive effect of pension insurance expenditure both show a gradual weakening trend in the east-central-western region. The negative regulating effect of aging plays an insignificant promoting effect in the western region instead. In the long run, the population structure should be improved and the quality of population should be improved as soon as possible. And we should further improve the pension insurance expenditure system, promote the balance of fund income and expenditure, and realize the coordinated development of pension security expenditure and economic inclusion among regions.","bibtexUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=BibTeX&id=6551","abstractUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/10.11778/j.jnxb.20222014","zuoZheCn_L":"宋佳莹, 高传胜","juanUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/Y2023","lanMu_en":"","qiUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/Y2023/V45/I2","zuoZhe_EN":"SONG Jiaying, GAO Chuansheng","risUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=Ris&id=6551","title_en":"Population Aging, Pension Security Expenditure and High-Quality Economic Development","hasPdf":"true"},"authorNotes_cn":["宋佳莹,南京大学政府管理学院;高传胜,南京大学政府管理学院、长江产业经济研究院。"]};if(window.metaData && (!window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_cn && !window.metaData.authorNotesCorresp_cn && window.metaData.authorNotes_cn)){window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_cn = window.metaData.authorNotes_cn;}if(window.metaData && (!window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_en && !window.metaData.authorNotesCorresp_en && window.metaData.authorNotes_en)){window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_en = window.metaData.authorNotes_en;}var _nlmdtdXml = $("#article_nlmdtdXml").val();var magDir = _nlmdtdXml.replace(/\/[^\/]+$/,'');window.metaData.magDir = magDir;new mag_vue({ el: '#metaVue', //dataUrl: mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/EN/article/getRichHtmlJson.do?articleId='+$("#articleId").val(), data:window.metaData, loading:true, doTextFun:function(text){ return doDataJsonText(text); }, doAfterFun:function(selector,jsonData){doMagVueAfter(selector,jsonData);}});var pars = {attachType:'PDF',id:$("#articleId").val(),json:true};jQuery.post($("#mag-common-contextPath").val()+"/CN/article/showArticleFile.do?" + new Date().getTime(), pars, function(data){var json=null;if(data.match(/^\[json\].*/g)){json=eval("("+data.replace(/^\[json\]/g,"")+")");}if(json && json.status == 1){//有权限}else{//无权限$("#no-access-div").show();}});mag_ajax({url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/article/getRichHtmlJson.do',data:{articleId:$("#articleId").val(),token:'04a7262d306047b3a9d260b334f97365',referer:document.referrer},dataType:"json",async:"false",success:function(json){if(json.richHtmlJson && json.richHtmlJson.article){if(json.trans){var _nlmdtdXmlCN = $("#article_nlmdtdXmlCN").val();var magDirCN = _nlmdtdXmlCN.replace(/\/[^\/]+$/,'');json.richHtmlJson.magDir=magDirCN;}else{json.richHtmlJson.magDir=magDir;}new mag_vue({ el: '#bodyVue', data:json.richHtmlJson, doTextFun:function(text){ return doDataJsonText(text); }, doAfterFun:function(selector,jsonData){doMagVueAfter(selector,jsonData);}});}}});//altmetricif($.trim($("#article_doi").val())!=''){$.ajax({url:'https://api.altmetric.com/v1/doi/'+$.trim($("#article_doi").val())+'?callback=altmetric_callback',//url:'https://api.altmetric.com/v1/doi/10.1007/s13238-016-0264-7?callback=altmetric_callback',dataType:'jsonp'});}mag_rich_menu(jQuery);$(function(){ $('#autoMenu').autoMenu();})$("#autoMenu").niceScroll({cursorcolor: "#ccc", //滚动条的颜色cursoropacitymax: 0, //滚动条的透明度，从0-1 touchbehavior: false, //使光标拖动滚动像在台式电脑触摸设备 true滚动条拖动不可用 cursorwidth: "6px", //滚动条的宽度 单位默认px cursorborder: "0", // 游标边框css定义 cursorborderradius: "3px", //滚动条两头的圆角 autohidemode: true, //是否隐藏滚动条 true的时候默认不显示滚动条，当鼠标经过的时候显示滚动条 zindex: "auto", //给滚动条设置z-index值 railvalign:'defaul',railpadding: {top: 0,right: -6,left: 0,bottom: 0}, //滚动条的位置});window.autoMenuFlag=true;$("#relatedArticles").niceScroll({cursorcolor: "#ccc", //滚动条的颜色cursoropacitymax: 0, //滚动条的透明度，从0-1 touchbehavior: false, //使光标拖动滚动像在台式电脑触摸设备 true滚动条拖动不可用 cursorwidth: "6px", //滚动条的宽度 单位默认px cursorborder: "0", // 游标边框css定义 cursorborderradius: "3px", //滚动条两头的圆角 autohidemode: true, //是否隐藏滚动条 true的时候默认不显示滚动条，当鼠标经过的时候显示滚动条 zindex: "auto", //给滚动条设置z-index值 railvalign:'defaul',railpadding: {top: 0,right: -6,left: 0,bottom: 0}, //滚动条的位置});//公式序号 居右jQuery(".mag-xml-disp-formula").each(function() {var _this = jQuery(this);var _label= _this.children("label");if(typeof(_label.html())!="undefined"){_this.children("label").remove();_this.wrap("");_this.parent().parent().append(""+_label.html()+"");}});$('body').click(function(){$('.daochu_div').hide();$('.qipao').hide();})$('.qipao').click(function(event){event.stopPropagation();})/*参考文献显示隐藏*/$('.biaotijiantoush1').click(function(event){if($(this).attr('class')=='glyphicon glyphicon-triangle-top biaotijiantoush biaotijiantoush1'){$(this).parents('.mag_main_zhengwen_left_div_ckwx_table_benwenyiny').next('.mag_main_zhengwen_left_div_ckwx_table_ckwx_xiangqing').stop().slideUp();$(this).attr('class','glyphicon glyphicon-triangle-bottom biaotijiantoush biaotijiantoush1');}else if($(this).attr('class')=='glyphicon glyphicon-triangle-bottom biaotijiantoush biaotijiantoush1'){$(this).parents('.mag_main_zhengwen_left_div_ckwx_table_benwenyiny').next('.mag_main_zhengwen_left_div_ckwx_table_ckwx_xiangqing').stop().slideDown();$(this).attr('class','glyphicon glyphicon-triangle-top biaotijiantoush biaotijiantoush1');}event.stopPropagation();});//加载补充材料mag_ajax_update({ele_id:'showArticle_suppls',url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/article/showArticleSuppls.do',data:{articleId:$("#articleId").val()}});//加载专题mag_ajax_update({ele_id:'showArticle_subjects',url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/subject/showSubjectListByArticle.do',data:{articleId:$("#articleId").val(),forwardJsp:'showArticle'}});//渲染公式mag_mathJax();});function altmetric_callback(json){if(json && json.score){if(json.score - parseInt(json.score) > 0){$("#altmetric-score").html(parseInt(json.score)+1);}else{$("#altmetric-score").html(parseInt(json.score));}$(".main_content_center_right_duoweidu_div").css("width","25%");$("#altmetric-a").show();$("#altmetric-a").attr("href",json.details_url);}}function richClickAuthor(name){var searchSQL = "((("+mag_advSearchValReplace(name)+"[Author]) AND 2J[Journal]) AND year[Order])";mag_request({url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/searchresult',data:{searchSQL:searchSQL}});}function richClickKeyword(keyword){var searchSQL = "((("+mag_advSearchValReplace(keyword)+"[Keyword]) AND 2J[Journal]) AND year[Order])";mag_request({url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/searchresult',data:{searchSQL:searchSQL}});}function mag_share(){$("#bShare_more_a").click();}function loadRelatedArticles(){if($("#showRelatedArticles") && $("#showRelatedArticles").length>0){//加载过了}else{mag_loading();mag_ajax_update({ele_id:'relatedArticles-content',url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/article/relatedArticle.do',data:{id:$("#articleId").val(), forwardJsp:'showArticle'},complete:function(){mag_layer_close();}});}}function showMetrics(){mag_window_location(mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/CN/metrics/'+$("#articleId").val());}function piaofuFn(a,fnId){var content=''+$("#mag-rich-fn-"+fnId).html()+'';piaofu(a,content);}function huoqukuanduimg(){//}function doDataJsonText(text){var str = text;//var _nlmdtdXml = $("#article_nlmdtdXml").val();//var magDir = _nlmdtdXml.replace(/\/[^\/]+$/,'');str = str.replace(/";ss += "";var shuomingTitle = "";var shuomingContent = '';if(fig.titleCn && fig.titleCn!=''){shuomingTitle = fig.titleCn;if(fig.titleContentCn && fig.titleContentCn!=''){shuomingContent += fig.titleContentCn;}}if(shuomingTitle==''){if(fig.titleEn && fig.titleEn!=''){shuomingTitle = fig.titleEn;}if(fig.titleContentEn && fig.titleContentEn!=''){shuomingContent += fig.titleContentEn;}}else{if(fig.titleEn && fig.titleEn!=''){shuomingContent += ""+fig.titleEn+"

来源：2023年第2期

《暨南学报(哲学社会科学版)》期刊编辑部

查看暨南学报(哲学社会科学版)杂志2023年第2期