暨南学报(哲学社会科学版)

作者：王秋石, 段芳

单位：中山大学政治与公共事务管理学院。

关键词：地方财政能力,应急支出,府际竞争,溢出效应,面板数据空间分析

基金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“防范与化解我国地方政府债务风险研究—一个财政透明度的视角”(72174215);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“共同富裕时代的新型预算与财政体制建构研究”(22JJD630022)。

我国地方应急支出总体上长期不足且地区间分布严重不均,而2003年以来实施的以“一案三制”为中心的一系列应急管理改革也未能从根本上扭转这一局面。本文从府际应急支出竞争的角度出发,依据公共经济学和组织学基本理论,构建了一个解释地方财政能力对本地区和邻近地区应急支出不同影响机制的整体性分析框架,并使用2019—2021年省级面板数据和SDM模型偏微分方法,从直接效应、间接效应和总效应三个方面验证了地方财政能力对应急支出的多重影响和相互作用。研究结果表明,地方政府财政能力与本地区应急支出存在正相关关系,但是受到晋升锦标赛和应急支出“逐底竞争”的影响,地方财政能力对邻近地区的应急支出会产生负向溢出效应。这一结论为克服地方应急支出的“逐底竞争”问题、保证地方常规性应急储备和支出处于合理水平、减少地方政府在应急管理方面的依赖心理等提供了理论依据和经验支持,有利于推动我国应急管理尤其是应急预算方面进一步深化改革。"/>template{display:none;}.mag-rich-xref-fn { cursor: pointer;}//长视频$(document).ready(function(){if($("#showLongArticleVideo") && $("#showLongArticleVideo").length && $("#showLongArticleVideo").length>0){mag_ajax_update({ele_id:'showLongArticleVideo',url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + "/CN/article/showLongArticleVideo.do?id="+$("#articleId").val()});}});$(document).ready(function(){window.metaData = {"journal":{"issn":"1000-5072","qiKanMingCheng_CN":"暨南学报（哲学社会科学版）","id":2,"qiKanMingCheng_EN":"Jinan Journal"},"fundList_cn":["国家自然科学基金面上项目“防范与化解我国地方政府债务风险研究—一个财政透明度的视角”(72174215);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“共同富裕时代的新型预算与财政体制建构研究”(22JJD630022)。"],"article":{"keywordList_cn":["地方财政能力","应急支出","府际竞争","溢出效应","面板数据空间分析"],"juan":"46","zhaiyao_cn":"我国地方应急支出总体上长期不足且地区间分布严重不均,而2003年以来实施的以“一案三制”为中心的一系列应急管理改革也未能从根本上扭转这一局面。本文从府际应急支出竞争的角度出发,依据公共经济学和组织学基本理论,构建了一个解释地方财政能力对本地区和邻近地区应急支出不同影响机制的整体性分析框架,并使用2019—2021年省级面板数据和SDM模型偏微分方法,从直接效应、间接效应和总效应三个方面验证了地方财政能力对应急支出的多重影响和相互作用。研究结果表明,地方政府财政能力与本地区应急支出存在正相关关系,但是受到晋升锦标赛和应急支出“逐底竞争”的影响,地方财政能力对邻近地区的应急支出会产生负向溢出效应。这一结论为克服地方应急支出的“逐底竞争”问题、保证地方常规性应急储备和支出处于合理水平、减少地方政府在应急管理方面的依赖心理等提供了理论依据和经验支持,有利于推动我国应急管理尤其是应急预算方面进一步深化改革。","endNoteUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=EndNote&id=7096","reference":"","bibtexUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=BibTeX&id=7096","abstractUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/10.11778/j.jnxb.20240942","qi":"10","id":7096,"nian":2024,"bianHao":"1733126587936-1108728311","zuoZheEn_L":"WANG Qiushi, DUAN Fang","juanUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/Y2024","shouCiFaBuRiQi":"2024-12-02","qiShiYe":"108","qiUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/Y2024/V46/I10","lanMu_cn":"经济管理·财政研究","pdfSize":"1038","zuoZhe_CN":"王秋石, 段芳","risUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=Ris&id=7096","title_cn":"地方财政能力与府际应急支出竞争","doi":"10.11778/j.jnxb.20240942","jieShuYe":"128","keywordList_en":["local governments' fiscal capacity","emergency spending","inter-governmental competition","spillover effect","spatial econometric analysis for panel data"],"endNoteUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=EndNote&id=7096","zhaiyao_en":"China's local emergency spending has long been insufficient and unevenly distributed among different regions, and a series of emergency management reforms that centered on the “one case, three systems principle” implemented since 2003 have not changed this situation. Local emergency spending is usually constrained by local fiscal capacity, and the sharp decline in local financial resources following the tax-sharing reform of 1994 has resulted in an overall low level of emergency spending in China. In recent years, along with the establishment of the shared authority of emergency management in China, local governments have gradually acquired the necessary authority and expenditure responsibility of emergency management. Given that the total financial resources are constant, local governments may seek to obtain more emergency management resources through strategic implementation and jurisdictional competition. In addition, the long-standing phenomenon of promotion tournaments and intergovernmental competition for economic development has further strengthened the interdependence of local governments in emergency expenditures, exacerbating the downward competition trend of local emergency spending. However, most studies on the issue of emergency spending focus on the central and local fiscal relationships or single local governments, paying little attention to the interrelations of local fiscal capacity, intergovernmental competition, and promotion tournaments. Therefore, existing literature cannot explain the overall low and uneven distribution of the local emergency budget, nor can it propose an overall solution to the problem.This study first establishes a comprehensive evaluation system for measuring local fiscal capacity. Using provincial panel data from 2019 to 2021 and the entropy weight method, this study first calculates a comprehensive index of China' local fiscal capacity. Then, a bidirectional fixed effects SDM model is employed with the geographical spatial weight matrix and economic spatial weight matrix, and a partial differential decomposition is performed to verify the multiple impacts and interactions of local fiscal capacity on emergency spending from three aspects: direct effects, indirect effects, and total effects. The results of this study show that there is a positive and significant association between local government fiscal capacity and emergency spending in the neighboring region. Moreover, local fiscal capacity has a negative spillover effect on emergency spending in neighboring regions possibly due to the influence of the promotion tournament and the “race-to-the-bottom competition” in emergency spending. After changing some of the explanatory variables and using different spatial weight matrixes, the above regression results remain robust.This study contributes to existing literature on at least two fronts. First, it comprehensively considers local fiscal capacity and the competition in intergovernmental emergency spending. Based on the definition of the concept of local fiscal capacity and emergency management, this study, according to the basic economic and organizational theories, builds a holistic analysis framework to explain the divergent impact mechanisms of local fiscal capacity on emergency spending in localities and their neighboring areas. Second, by considering local governments as interconnected actors in emergency management, this study not only investigates the spatial impact of local fiscal capacity on local emergency spending but also explores the potential spillover effects on emergency spending in neighboring areas.The findings of this study provide a theoretical basis and empirical support for solving the problem of “race-to-the-bottom competition” in local emergency spending, ensuring an adequate level of local emergency reserves and spending and reducing local governments' reliance on central government in emergency management. These conclusions help promote further deepening reforms in emergency management in China, especially in the area of emergency budgeting.","bibtexUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=BibTeX&id=7096","abstractUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/10.11778/j.jnxb.20240942","zuoZheCn_L":"王秋石, 段芳","juanUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/Y2024","lanMu_en":"","qiUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/Y2024/V46/I10","zuoZhe_EN":"WANG Qiushi, DUAN Fang","risUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=Ris&id=7096","title_en":"Local Governments' Fiscal Capacity and the Intergovernmental Competition for Emergency Spending","hasPdf":"true"},"authorNotes_cn":["王秋石、段芳,中山大学政治与公共事务管理学院。"]};if(window.metaData && (!window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_cn && !window.metaData.authorNotesCorresp_cn && window.metaData.authorNotes_cn)){window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_cn = window.metaData.authorNotes_cn;}if(window.metaData && (!window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_en && !window.metaData.authorNotesCorresp_en && window.metaData.authorNotes_en)){window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_en = window.metaData.authorNotes_en;}var _nlmdtdXml = $("#article_nlmdtdXml").val();var magDir = _nlmdtdXml.replace(/\/[^\/]+$/,'');window.metaData.magDir = magDir;new mag_vue({ el: '#metaVue', //dataUrl: mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/EN/article/getRichHtmlJson.do?articleId='+$("#articleId").val(), data:window.metaData, loading:true, doTextFun:function(text){ return doDataJsonText(text); 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来源：2024年第10期

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