暨南学报(哲学社会科学版)

作者：黄新飞, 赵成林

单位：中山大学国际金融学院、高级金融研究院;赵成林,中山大学国际金融学院。

关键词：国家高新区,人口流动,多时点双重差分,结构效应,人才虹吸

基金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“信息技术扩散政策对制造业升级的影响研究:效应、机制与优化”(72103211);广东省自然科学基金卓越青年团队项目“基于双循环背景下中国双向直接投资理论与应用研究”(2024B1515040021)。

近年来,全国人口自然增长率下降趋势明显,各地围绕“人口”的竞争愈发激烈。设立国家高新区是地方政府推进产业结构转型升级的重要手段,同时对劳动力迁移有着重要影响。本文手工整理了2004—2018年全国233个地级市的常住人口数据,利用多时点双重差分法实证检验了设立国家高新区对地区人口流动的影响。结论如下:(1)国家高新区的设立扩大了所在城市的常住人口规模,在人口总量方面可以提高4个百分点。而高新区建设对于常住人口增速存在抑制作用。(2)机制检验证明,设立国家高新区通过促进地区产业结构转型升级、提高地区工资水平、改善创新创业环境三个渠道,增强了所在地区对人口的吸引力。(3)异质性分析结果显示,国家高新区的建设时间越长,在吸引人口流入方面的作用越明显,同时国家高新区对人口规模的正向促进作用在中西部地区和落后地区更为显著。以上结论为中国推进新型城镇化建设、实现科技创新与人力资源协同发展提供了一个新的视角。"/>template{display:none;}.mag-rich-xref-fn { cursor: pointer;}//长视频$(document).ready(function(){if($("#showLongArticleVideo") && $("#showLongArticleVideo").length && $("#showLongArticleVideo").length>0){mag_ajax_update({ele_id:'showLongArticleVideo',url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + "/CN/article/showLongArticleVideo.do?id="+$("#articleId").val()});}});$(document).ready(function(){window.metaData = {"journal":{"issn":"1000-5072","qiKanMingCheng_CN":"暨南学报（哲学社会科学版）","id":2,"qiKanMingCheng_EN":"Jinan Journal"},"fundList_cn":["国家自然科学基金青年项目“信息技术扩散政策对制造业升级的影响研究:效应、机制与优化”(72103211);广东省自然科学基金卓越青年团队项目“基于双循环背景下中国双向直接投资理论与应用研究”(2024B1515040021)。"],"article":{"keywordList_cn":["国家高新区","人口流动","多时点双重差分","结构效应","人才虹吸"],"juan":"46","zhaiyao_cn":"近年来,全国人口自然增长率下降趋势明显,各地围绕“人口”的竞争愈发激烈。设立国家高新区是地方政府推进产业结构转型升级的重要手段,同时对劳动力迁移有着重要影响。本文手工整理了2004—2018年全国233个地级市的常住人口数据,利用多时点双重差分法实证检验了设立国家高新区对地区人口流动的影响。结论如下:(1)国家高新区的设立扩大了所在城市的常住人口规模,在人口总量方面可以提高4个百分点。而高新区建设对于常住人口增速存在抑制作用。(2)机制检验证明,设立国家高新区通过促进地区产业结构转型升级、提高地区工资水平、改善创新创业环境三个渠道,增强了所在地区对人口的吸引力。(3)异质性分析结果显示,国家高新区的建设时间越长,在吸引人口流入方面的作用越明显,同时国家高新区对人口规模的正向促进作用在中西部地区和落后地区更为显著。以上结论为中国推进新型城镇化建设、实现科技创新与人力资源协同发展提供了一个新的视角。","endNoteUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=EndNote&id=7136","reference":"","bibtexUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=BibTeX&id=7136","abstractUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/10.11778/j.jnxb.20240392","qi":"12","id":7136,"nian":2024,"bianHao":"1736415777116-1615166074","zuoZheEn_L":"HUANG Xinfei, ZHAO Chenglin","juanUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/Y2024","shouCiFaBuRiQi":"2025-01-09","qiShiYe":"125","qiUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/Y2024/V46/I12","lanMu_cn":"经济·管理","pdfSize":"1535","zuoZhe_CN":"黄新飞, 赵成林","risUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=Ris&id=7136","title_cn":"“筑巢引凤”抑或“引凤筑巢”？——高新区设立对城市人口流动的影响机制","doi":"10.11778/j.jnxb.20240392","jieShuYe":"145","keywordList_en":["national hi-tech zones","population mobility","time-varying DID","structure effect","talent attraction"],"endNoteUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=EndNote&id=7136","zhaiyao_en":"In recent years, the natural population growth rate has declined significantly, and the competition around “population” has become increasingly fierce. Existing literature has not reached a consistent conclusion on the relationship between housing prices and labor migration, and there are still deeper factors influencing labor migration. The establishment of national hi-tech zones is an important means for local governments to promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure, and has an important impact on labor migration. Although the construction of national hi-tech zones can improve urban economic development and promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure, if the development results are not internalized into the income premium of the migrant population, the attraction of the construction of hi-tech zones for the migrant population is still doubtful. This paper attempts to conduct an exploration of the construction of hi-tech zones and test the role of this policy in the field of migration decision-making.This paper manually collects the resident population data of 233 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2018 and empirically tests the impact of the establishment of national Hi-tech zones on regional population mobility by using the time-varying difference-in-differences (DID) method. The results are as follows. (1) The establishment of national hi-tech zones has expanded the permanent population of the cities in which they are located, which can increase the total population by 4 percentage points. The construction of hi-tech zones has an inhibitory effect on the growth rate of the permanent resident population. (2) The mechanism test proves that the establishment of national hi-tech zones in a region enhances the attractiveness of the region to the population through three channels: promoting the transformation and upgrading of regional industrial structure, raising regional wages, and improving the environment for innovation and entrepreneurship. (3) The results of heterogeneity analysis show that the longer the construction time of national hi-tech zones, the more obvious the role of national hi-tech zones in attracting population inflow; and the positive promoting effect of national hi-tech zones on population size is more significant in the central and western regions and backward areas. Compared with previous studies, the theoretical contributions of this paper are as follows. First, it expands the research perspective of migration decision-making of the migrant population. From the perspective of urban industrial layout, it explains the attraction effect of high-tech industrial agglomeration on migration decision-making. Based on solving the problem of “come” of the migrant population, it further solves the problem of “stay” from the perspective of providing higher wage premiums. Second, it promotes research on the construction effect of national hi-tech zones, extends research on such regional industrial policies with Chinese characteristics to the level of urban livability, and provides a new idea in line with the development concept of new urbanization for the construction of hi-tech zones.The conclusion of this paper clarifies the internal logic of the influence of the establishment of national hi-tech zones on population migration decision-making to a certain extent, and demonstrates the way that hi-tech zones play a role in affecting the migration decision-making of population, helps local governments to formulate appropriate industrial policies to attract population inflow, and provides a new perspective for China to promote the construction of new urbanization and realize the coordinated development of technological innovation and human resources.","bibtexUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=BibTeX&id=7136","abstractUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/10.11778/j.jnxb.20240392","zuoZheCn_L":"黄新飞, 赵成林","juanUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/Y2024","lanMu_en":"","qiUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/Y2024/V46/I12","zuoZhe_EN":"HUANG Xinfei, ZHAO Chenglin","risUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=Ris&id=7136","title_en":"“Build a Nest to Attract the Phoenix” or “Attract the Phoenix to Build a Nest”? — The Influence Mechanism of the Establishment of High-Tech Zones on Population Flow","hasPdf":"true"},"authorNotes_cn":["黄新飞,中山大学国际金融学院、高级金融研究院;赵成林,中山大学国际金融学院。"]};if(window.metaData && (!window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_cn && !window.metaData.authorNotesCorresp_cn && window.metaData.authorNotes_cn)){window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_cn = window.metaData.authorNotes_cn;}if(window.metaData && (!window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_en && !window.metaData.authorNotesCorresp_en && window.metaData.authorNotes_en)){window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_en = window.metaData.authorNotes_en;}var _nlmdtdXml = $("#article_nlmdtdXml").val();var magDir = _nlmdtdXml.replace(/\/[^\/]+$/,'');window.metaData.magDir = magDir;new mag_vue({ el: '#metaVue', //dataUrl: mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/EN/article/getRichHtmlJson.do?articleId='+$("#articleId").val(), data:window.metaData, loading:true, doTextFun:function(text){ return doDataJsonText(text); 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来源：2024年第12期

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