暨南学报(哲学社会科学版)

作者：潘欣欣

单位：西南大学经济管理学院。

关键词：产业链韧性,国内大循环,国内国际双循环,双循环新发展格局

基金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“新发展格局下稳定和优化成渝地区双城经济圈产业链供应链研究”(22BJY037)。

双循环新发展格局通过增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性,提升国际循环质量和水平,为维护产业链安全和提升产业链韧性指明了方向。对双循环影响产业链韧性的理论机理进行研究,实证检验了双循环对产业链韧性的影响效果、异质性表现、作用机制。研究结论表明,国内大循环对产业链韧性的影响呈现先抑制后促进的“U形”特征,国内国际双循环能够显著促进产业链韧性提升。双循环对产业链韧性的影响存在行业异质性,在“卡脖子”行业中,国内大循环对产业链韧性的影响还未产生显著效应,国内国际双循环呈现先促进后抑制的“倒U形”特征;在其他行业中,国内大循环对产业链韧性的影响呈现“U形”特征,国内国际双循环显著促进产业链韧性水平提升。双循环对产业链韧性的影响存在区域异质性,在沿海地区双循环显著促进产业链韧性水平提升;在非沿海地区双循环对产业链韧性的影响呈现先抑制后促进的“U形”特征。进一步的研究表明,国内大市场和技术创新是国内大循环影响产业链韧性的重要路径;国内国际双循环通过吸引外商直接投资和促进技术创新提升产业链韧性水平。"/>template{display:none;}.mag-rich-xref-fn { cursor: pointer;}//长视频$(document).ready(function(){if($("#showLongArticleVideo") && $("#showLongArticleVideo").length && $("#showLongArticleVideo").length>0){mag_ajax_update({ele_id:'showLongArticleVideo',url:mag_currentQikanUrl() + "/CN/article/showLongArticleVideo.do?id="+$("#articleId").val()});}});$(document).ready(function(){window.metaData = {"journal":{"issn":"1000-5072","qiKanMingCheng_CN":"暨南学报（哲学社会科学版）","id":2,"qiKanMingCheng_EN":"Jinan Journal"},"fundList_cn":["国家社会科学基金一般项目“新发展格局下稳定和优化成渝地区双城经济圈产业链供应链研究”(22BJY037)。"],"article":{"keywordList_cn":["产业链韧性","国内大循环","国内国际双循环","双循环新发展格局"],"juan":"47","zhaiyao_cn":"双循环新发展格局通过增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性,提升国际循环质量和水平,为维护产业链安全和提升产业链韧性指明了方向。对双循环影响产业链韧性的理论机理进行研究,实证检验了双循环对产业链韧性的影响效果、异质性表现、作用机制。研究结论表明,国内大循环对产业链韧性的影响呈现先抑制后促进的“U形”特征,国内国际双循环能够显著促进产业链韧性提升。双循环对产业链韧性的影响存在行业异质性,在“卡脖子”行业中,国内大循环对产业链韧性的影响还未产生显著效应,国内国际双循环呈现先促进后抑制的“倒U形”特征;在其他行业中,国内大循环对产业链韧性的影响呈现“U形”特征,国内国际双循环显著促进产业链韧性水平提升。双循环对产业链韧性的影响存在区域异质性,在沿海地区双循环显著促进产业链韧性水平提升;在非沿海地区双循环对产业链韧性的影响呈现先抑制后促进的“U形”特征。进一步的研究表明,国内大市场和技术创新是国内大循环影响产业链韧性的重要路径;国内国际双循环通过吸引外商直接投资和促进技术创新提升产业链韧性水平。","endNoteUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=EndNote&id=7241","reference":"","bibtexUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=BibTeX&id=7241","abstractUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/10.11778/j.jnxb.20241017","qi":"7","id":7241,"nian":2025,"bianHao":"1757058995565-166175121","zuoZheEn_L":"PAN Xinxin","juanUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/Y2025","shouCiFaBuRiQi":"2025-09-05","qiShiYe":"75","qiUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/Y2025/V47/I7","lanMu_cn":"国内国际双循环专题","pdfSize":"1810","zuoZhe_CN":"潘欣欣","risUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=Ris&id=7241","title_cn":"双循环新发展格局对产业链韧性的影响研究——基于复杂系统的产业链韧性测度法","doi":"10.11778/j.jnxb.20241017","jieShuYe":"98","keywordList_en":["industrial chain resilience","domestic circulation","domestic and international dual circulation","the “dual circulation” new development paradigm"],"endNoteUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=EndNote&id=7241","zhaiyao_en":"Against the backdrop of profound adjustments in the global economic landscape and increasing complexity in the external environment, the “dual circulation” new development paradigm provides a strategic direction for enhancing industrial chain resilience by strengthening the endogenous driving forces and reliability of domestic circulation, as well as improving the quality and efficiency of international circulation. Under the “dual circulation” new development paradigm, enhancing industrial chain resilience is not only an inherent requirement for ensuring stable economic performance in China but also a critical pathway to breaking free from low-end lock-in within the global value chains (GVCs) and elevating industrial competitiveness. However, existing literature remains insufficient in exploring the relationship between the “dual circulation” new development paradigm and industrial chain resilience, particularly lacking a dual perspective-focusing on both domestic circulation and domestic and international dual circulation-to thoroughly analyze their impact on industrial chain resilience and its mechanisms.This paper utilizes data from the China Carbon Accounting Database, China Industry Economy Statistical Yearbook, China Statistical Yearbook, China Science and Technology Statistical Yearbook, and the National Bureau of Statistics. The measurement of industrial chain resilience draws on the approach in He, constructing an industrial chain network using China's multi-regional input-output data. Based on the complex network theory, a deliberate attack strategy is employed to calculate China's industrial chain resilience index. For measuring the “dual circulation” new development paradigm, this paper adopts the regional value-added decomposition framework developed by Zhang and Bai and Sheng et al., assessing domestic circulation and domestic and international dual circulation from a value chain perspective. Empirical findings reveal that domestic circulation exhibits a U-shaped effect on industrial chain resilience, initially suppressing and subsequently promoting it, while domestic and international dual circulation significantly enhances resilience. Mechanism analysis indicates that the domestic market scale and technological innovation serve as key pathways through which domestic circulation influences industrial chain resilience. Meanwhile, domestic and international dual circulation boosts resilience by attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) and fostering technological progress. Further analysis demonstrates significant industrial and regional heterogeneity in the impact of the “dual circulation” new development paradigm on industrial chain resilience. Compared to prior studies, this paper makes two key contributions. First, in terms of research perspective, this paper moves beyond the qualitative focus of existing literature on the background, connotations, and theoretical logic of “dual circulation”. Instead, it shifts attention to the economic effects of domestic circulation and domestic and international dual circulation, systematically examining their impacts on industrial chain resilience and identifying pathways for resilience enhancement in the new era. Second, in terms of research content, this paper disentangles the distinct effects and mechanisms of domestic circulation and domestic and international dual circulation on resilience, offering novel theoretical and empirical insights. Furthermore, by incorporating multidimensional perspectives, such as industrial and regional heterogeneity, it uncovers differential patterns of these effects, providing targeted policy guidance for industrial chain resilience improvement.This paper elucidates the intrinsic mechanisms through which the “dual circulation” new development paradigm influences industrial chain resilience, offering valuable policy implications for the government to formulate targeted policies to enhance industrial chain resilience. The government should not only sustain the dominant role of domestic circulation in resilience building but also balance opening-up and economic security, and leverage domestic and international dual circulation to foster industrial chain resilience, thereby establishing a more resilient industrial chain system.","bibtexUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=BibTeX&id=7241","abstractUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/10.11778/j.jnxb.20241017","zuoZheCn_L":"潘欣欣","juanUrl_cn":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/CN/Y2025","lanMu_en":"","qiUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/Y2025/V47/I7","zuoZhe_EN":"PAN Xinxin","risUrl_en":"https://jnxb.jnu.edu.cn/skb/EN/article/getTxtFile.do?fileType=Ris&id=7241","title_en":"The Impact of the “Dual Circulation” New Development Paradigm on Industrial Chain Resilience: A Complex Systems-Based Measurement Method for Industrial Chain Resilience","hasPdf":"true"},"authorNotes_cn":["潘欣欣,西南大学经济管理学院。"]};if(window.metaData && (!window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_cn && !window.metaData.authorNotesCorresp_cn && window.metaData.authorNotes_cn)){window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_cn = window.metaData.authorNotes_cn;}if(window.metaData && (!window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_en && !window.metaData.authorNotesCorresp_en && window.metaData.authorNotes_en)){window.metaData.authorNotesCommon_en = window.metaData.authorNotes_en;}var _nlmdtdXml = $("#article_nlmdtdXml").val();var magDir = _nlmdtdXml.replace(/\/[^\/]+$/,'');window.metaData.magDir = magDir;new mag_vue({ el: '#metaVue', //dataUrl: mag_currentQikanUrl() + '/EN/article/getRichHtmlJson.do?articleId='+$("#articleId").val(), data:window.metaData, loading:true, doTextFun:function(text){ return doDataJsonText(text); 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来源：2025年第7期

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